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03 Dec 2025

美联储主席人选趋明朗。美国降息预期和日本加息预期分化加剧。欧元区制造业萎缩，服务业继续扩张。美国推28点俄乌和平计划，谈判进展牵动国际油价波动。过去两周，中资海外债一级新发合计约257.37亿美元，较前一周期（11月3日-11月14日）的 181.75亿美元减少42%。受万科信用风险事件扰动，二级市场地产高收益板块回报率指数下跌。

2026 China’s New Energy Vehicle Sector Credit Outlook: Tactical Rivalry and Landscape Reshaping Amid Deepening Electrification and the Race for Intelligence

24 Oct 2025

China’s new energy vehicles (NEV) sector has solidified its global dominance, with production and sales both surpassing 9.6 million units and a 45.5% penetration rate. Strong policy support, rising demand, and expanding charging infrastructure fuel growth, especially in low-cost battery electric vehicles. In Jan-Aug 2025, NEV exports surged by 87.3% YoY, despite geopolitical headwinds. The power battery industry leads innovation amid low lithium carbonate prices, while advanced driver assistance systems rapidly become standard, enhancing intelligent driving capabilities. However, intense price competition squeezes OEM margins, and some companies see their profits lagging behind sales growth. Looking ahead, domestic market penetration and global expansion will deepen, though geopolitical tensions and tariffs may affect overseas progress. The sector’s shift toward electrification and intelligence will accelerate, but it requires major R&D investment and restructuring, putting short-term pressure on cash flow. Well-positioned firms may benefit from long-term scalability and stronger credit resilience. Meanwhile, weaker players could face consolidation or even exit the market.

Dim Sum Bonds on Favourable Tailwinds

15 Oct 2025

The Dim Sum bond market has surged, driven by China's dominating issuance (around 85%) and a 49% CAGR from 2018 to 2024, with RMB 574 bn issued in Q1-3 2025. This growth stems from favorable China-US monetary policy divergence, RMB internationalization, and investor demand. Issuers have diversified from central banks and financial institutions to sovereigns, tech giants (Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu), and fewer local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) due to tighter regulations. Medium- and long-term bonds, including green and ultra-long tenors, are increasing. Offshore RMB liquidity has amplified, supported by expanded Southbound Bond Connect, leading to lower financing costs and narrowing spreads between on- and off-shore yields for high-quality bonds. Yet LGFV bonds retain higher offshore yields. We expect a robust issuance growth, further issuer diversification, and strong investor demand, supported by RMB appreciation expectation and policy support.

Dim Sum Bond and Convertible Bond Issuance Surge in Q3 2025

03 Oct 2025

In Q3 2025, offshore Chinese bond issuance, led by Dim Sum and convertible bonds, showed strong growth. Convertible bond issuance rose 27% YoY, driven by internet and insurance sectors, while Dim Sum bond issuance rebounded 9.3% after early-year weakness due to LGFV constraints. Issuer diversity increased with greater participation from the financial sector and multinational companies. Investor demand remains robust, supported by RMB asset allocation trends and lower financing costs. Technology firms dominate convertible bond use for AI, cloud and oversea investments. Expansion of “Southbound Connect” further broadens the offshore RMB bond investor base.

2025 Mid-Year Review and Outlook for Chinese Offshore Bonds

05 Sep 2025

Markets now price a September 2025 Fed cut after Powell’s Aug 22 Jackson Hole tilt, with PCE/CPI, jobs, and tariff signals in the driver’s seat. Offshore issuance by Chinese names topped ~USD80bn in H1 2025—growth, but slower y/y—with USD bonds dominant and dim sum volumes softer amid late-2024 LGFV curbs; LGFV supply stayed largely for refi under tight oversight, with Jiangsu/Shandong/Zhejiang/Sichuan active and some prints at higher coupons, while maturities of USD22.37bn in H2 2025 and USD39.86bn in 2026 keep funding gaps in view. Property fundamentals remain weak and offshore issuance subdued; Jan–Aug 2025 saw negative net offshore financing from financials, with non-banks leading new prints. Dim sum prospects hinge on China–US rate differentials, regulation, and liquidity, with expected Southbound expansion supportive. Digital bonds are set to accelerate on policy and tech tailwinds, tempered by platform, data, and cross-border regulatory risks. In secondary, the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Return Index rose ~3.9% in H1; property returned 8.2% (below 2024’s 24% but still ahead of financials/LGFVs). Into H2, timing/size of Fed cuts, U.S.–China trade, China’s fiscal/monetary stance, and global liquidity argue for elevated volatility and persistent sector dispersion.

Global Petrochemical Industry Mid-Year 2025 Credit Outlook: Structural Contradictions Amid a Slow-Growth Cycle

05 Sep 2025

Despite modest growth in overall demand, the petrochemical sector is grappling with structural supply imbalances. Overcapacity, energy-price volatility and persistent trade frictions are hindering the recovery of profitability and exacerbating operational challenges. Given its inherently cyclical nature, the industry is witnessing a gradual demand rebound and the supply-demand mismatch remains the core developmental hurdle. Simultaneously, rising demand for high-end and specialty chemicals, ever-stricter environmental regulations and accelerated Artificial Intelligence (AI) adoption are reshaping competitive landscape. Companies are urged to ramp up Research and Development (R&D) and optimize production processes to comply with stringent environmental standards and capitalize on new opportunities in the global value-chain reconfiguration. Against this backdrop, CSPI Ratings believes that the global petrochemical industry will remain challenged in achieving stability with in a low-growth, high-volatility macro-economic environment in the foreseeable future.

Will China’s Childcare Subsidies Strain Its Fiscal Health?

01 Aug 2025

CSPI Ratings examines the fiscal implications of China's national Childcare Subsidy Plan aimed at addressing its declining birth rate and aging population. It highlights that the Plan imposes minimal fiscal strain—2025’s RMB120 billion expenditure accounts for 0.5% of national general public budget revenue, well below OECD levels, with room for further growth. The central-local cost-sharing model, where the central government bears most costs and localities supplement based on fiscal capacity, ensures sustainability. The policy, with direct cash subsidies more likely encouraging fertility among low-income households, primes the pump for a broader "investing in people" strategy. A systematic fertility-improving policy may be further established, aiming to ease family burdens, boost fertility, and drive long-term economic returns.

Evolution of LGFVs Under China’s Debt Resolution Manoeuvre

22 Jul 2025

Since the introduction of China's "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Package" in July 2023 and the RMB 10 trillion debt swap program in November 2024, the country's debt resolution strategies have shown notable progress. By the end of 2024, Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) debt reached RMB 61 trillion, with a slowed growth rate of 5.6%, the lowest in a decade. Meanwhile, local government direct debt grew by 16.6% (RMB 6.8 trillion) and is projected to hit RMB 55 trillion by 2025, potentially surpassing LGFV debt by 2027, indicating an optimized debt structure. LGFV bond issuance rates dropped significantly from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024, reducing financing costs, with average LGFV financing rates falling to 4.7%. Forecasts suggest interest payments will decline below RMB 2.8 trillion in 2025, a historic first, supported by debt swaps and tighter financing constraints. However, LGFVs face challenges with shorter debt maturities and regional disparities in financing access. Interest coverage ratios for LGFVs improved to 96.2% in 2024, driven by asset revitalization and government subsidies, though liquidity weakened, with the cash-to-current liabilities ratio falling to 17.9%. The asset-liability ratio rose to 62%, limiting further leverage, while government capital support growth slowed to 1.7%. As LGFVs transition to market-oriented operations, regional disparities are expected, with developed areas advancing faster. By 2027, China aims to eliminate hidden government debt, increasing commercialized LGFVs while phasing out underperforming ones.

Global LNG Outlook—Near-Term Tightness, Long-Term Expansion

16 Jun 2025

Global LNG capacity utilisation remains high, with limited room for short-term expansion due to supply constraints, project delays, and geopolitical factors. Demand is shifting from Europe to Asia, driven by strong growth in China and India, making Asia the primary demand centre. Major suppliers such as Qatar, Russia, and the U.S. continue to demonstrate strong financial performance, underpinned by resource advantages and cost competitiveness. In the short term, a tight supply-demand balance is expected to support firm LNG prices. Over the long term, global liquefaction capacity is projected to exceed 600 mtpa by 2035, enhancing market flexibility. However, challenges such as competition from renewables, carbon pricing, and geopolitical uncertainties—particularly related to U.S. policy shifts and production trends—may pose risks to market stability.

量体裁衣方为智：国际三大评级机构主权评级方法的中国适用性偏误

10 Apr 2025

国际三大评级机构的主权评级方法应用于中国时存在适用性局限，难以全面、准确地反映中国经济的特殊性、发展潜力和韧性。主要体现在三个方面：一是对中国经济转型期的基本面判断不够全面均衡，往往较为机械地套用一般适用的评级指标，而没有从动态发展和结构优化的视角来看待中国经济的阶段性特征；二是对中国政策制度安排的理解和评估不够深入到位，体现在国际评级机构倾向于以西方经验来审视中国政策制度，带有意识形态偏见，对中国政府主导、分阶段推进的渐进式改革方式缺乏足够的理解和尊重；三是对中国应对内外部风险的政策与经济协同缺乏全面客观的认知，特别是在近期美国对华加征关税的背景下，国际三大评级机构西方意识形态下的评估体系在国际舆论的影响下或许未能全面认识中国在应对关税冲击的政策优势和经济韧性。

New Research on the Performance of the Revenue Cash Flow Forecasting Model for Daily Revenue Obligations (DROs) and Daily Revenue Portfolios (DRPs)

30 May 2024

HONG KONG, 30 May 2024. CSPI Ratings has released a research report titled "Back-testing on the Revenue Cash Flow Forecasting Model for Daily Revenue Obligations (DROs) and Daily Revenue Portfolios (DRPs)." This study assesses the predictive accuracy of CSPI Ratings' Revenue Cash Flow Forecasting Model through five months of back-testing. The study indicates that the portfolio prediction errors were -1.01%, 1.12%, -2.85%, -2.07%, and 0.8%. The model also performed well on key metrics such as Bias, RMSE, and Out of sample R². Dr. Chen Ke, Chief Analytical Officer, noted, “The model shows strong predictive accuracy and adaptability to market changes. Accurate cash flow forecasting for DRO portfolios has significant implications for investors and financial institutions.” The study also provides forecasted revenue cash flows for May 2024, which will be evaluated in a subsequent report, offering further insights into model performance and asset class behavior.

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RATING ACTIONS

CSPI Ratings Confirms ‘BBB+’ Rating to Jiangsu Hanrui Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. and Hanrui Overseas Investment Co., Ltd.’s Offshore Notes Guaranteed by the Company; Outlook Stable 04 Dec 2025

中证鹏元国际确认杭州市拱墅区国有投资集团有限公司‘A-’国际评级，并授予其提供维好协议的境外债‘A-’的债项评级，展望稳定 04 Dec 2025

中证鹏元国际确认江苏瀚瑞投资控股有限公司以及由其担保的瀚瑞海外投资有限公司发行的2笔境外债券'BBB+'国际评级；展望稳定 04 Dec 2025

CSPI Ratings Assigns ‘A’ Final Issuance Rating to Chengdu Jingkai Asset Management Co., Ltd.’s offshore bonds, which are unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by Chengdu-Chongqing Bond Insurance Co., Ltd.; Outlook Stable 04 Dec 2025

中证鹏元国际授予成都经开资产管理有限公司发行的由双城（重庆）信用增进股份有限公司提供无条件不可撤销担保的境外债券'A'的最终债项评级；展望稳定 04 Dec 2025

CSPI Ratings Affirms ‘A-’ Rating to Hangzhou GSGT State-owned Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Assigns ‘A-’ Rating to the Offshore Bonds with the benefit of Keepwell Deed, Outlook Stable 04 Dec 2025

中证鹏元国际授予中国中央政府发行的两笔欧元债券‘AA’国际刻度长期外币信用评级；展望稳定 03 Dec 2025

CSPI Ratings Assigned ‘AA’ Rating to Two EUR Denominated Bonds of China Central Government; Outlook Stable 03 Dec 2025

中证鹏元国际撤销四川涪创发展集团有限公司‘BBB-’的国际评级及其拟发行的高级无抵押境外债券‘BBB-’的债项评级 02 Dec 2025

中证鹏元国际撤销滨州市滨城区经济开发投资有限公司国际评级 02 Dec 2025

中证鹏元国际上调成都经开资产管理有限公司及其发行的高级无抵押境外债券国际评级至'BBB'，并授予公司拟发行的、双城（重庆）信用增进股份有限公司提供无条件且不可撤销担保的境外债券“A”的暂定债项评级；展望稳定 28 Nov 2025

CSPI Ratings Upgrades Issuer Rating of Chengdu Jingkai Asset Management Co., Ltd. (CJAM) and Issuance Rating of the RMB200 million, 5.8% bonds due 2026 issued by CJAM to ‘BBB’; also Assigns ‘A’ Issuance Rating to the proposed offshore notes issued by CJAM, unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by Chengdu-Chongqing Bond Insurance Co., Ltd.; Outlook Stable 28 Nov 2025

CSPI Ratings Affirms ‘BBB’ Rating to Zibo Zhangdian District State-owned Assets Operation Co., Ltd. (ZDSAO) and Assigns ‘BBB’ Issuance Rating to Three Offshore Bonds Unconditionally and Irrevocably Guaranteed by ZDSAO; Outlook Stable 14 Nov 2025

中证鹏元国际确认淄博市张店区国有资产运营有限公司'BBB'国际评级，并授予其担保的三笔境外债券'BBB'的债项评级；展望稳定 14 Nov 2025

CSPI Ratings Assigned ‘AA’ Rating to Two USD Denominated Bonds of China Central Government; Outlook Stable 10 Nov 2025

EVENTS & REPLAYS

Qingdao, China · 04 Dec 2025 【会议回顾】中证鹏元国际受邀参加中国青岛市“地方国企跨境融资和高质量发展”现场培训

Qingdao, China · 04 Dec 2025 【Recap】CSPI Ratings was Invited to Speak in the “Local SOEs Cross-Border Financing and High-Quality Development” In-Person Training in Qingdao, China

Online · 02 Dec 2025 【Event Invite】CSPI Ratings X CFA Institute | Pengyuan Credit Webinar: 2026 Credit Outlook - China's New Energy Vehicles

Abu Dhabi, UAE · 26 Nov 2025 【Event Invite】The Asset: The 20th ABMS Capital Investment Summit - GCC Edition - Abu Dhabi

Online · 12 Nov 2025 【会议回顾】中证鹏元国际受邀参加俄罗斯全国公司秘书协会“中国上市公司ESG报告的最佳实践”线上研讨会

Online · 12 Nov 2025 【Recap】CSPI Ratings was Invited to Speak in the Russian NCSA “Best Practices in ESG Reporting for Chinese Listed Companies” Webinar

Mainland China · 12 Dec 2024 【会议回顾】中证鹏元 | 转型：挑战与机遇——中证鹏元2025年信用风险年会圆满举行