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海外市场双周报:美联储新主席提名,中国监管虚拟货币

29 Jan 2026

美国就业数据普遍降温,但PMI超预期回升,美联储主席提名引发市场震荡。过去两周,中资海外债一级市场新发规模约129.07亿美元,较前一周的183.04亿美元减少29.5%;二级市场小幅走高。

What's Driving the Surge in Hong Kong Dollar Bond Issuance?

09 Feb 2026

In 2025, overseas issuers significantly boosted HKD bond issuance, reaching HKD 268.2 billion, primarily driven by widening interest rate spreads between HKD and USD. As HKD bond issuers generally have strong credit quality, the market is expected to see continued growth, although a potential narrowing spreads may moderate future issuance.

Mainland “Three Red Lines” Fade, Hong Kong Reviews MPF Backed Home Purchases

04 Feb 2026

Chinese property developers are no longer required to submit “three red lines” metrics, shifting from regulatory constraints to cash-flow pressures. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's housing market is rebounding due to lower interest rates and potential policies allowing MPF funds to be used for down payments, signaling support for boosting market demand.

Macro and China Offshore Bonds Outlook - Fed Nears Neutral and China Offshore Bond Issuance Marginally Improve

03 Feb 2026

The Federal Reserve may shift to a neutral stance by 2026, with a weaker U.S. dollar potentially aiding a marginal improvement in China offshore bond issuance. This recovery will be uneven across sectors, supported by strong financing needs and growth in convertible, ESG, and digital bonds.

2026 Outlook for LGFV Offshore Bonds — Weak Issuance, Deepened Restructuring

30 Jan 2026

In 2025, Chinese LGFV overseas bonds experienced a historic negative net financing of -USD1.77 billion, with issuance down 50.3% year-on-year amid stringent policy constraints. While refinancing pressures are expected to ease in 2026, new issuance difficulties will persist, particularly for weak-credit issuers facing tight pricing power.

Resilient Growth and Structural Optimisation of China's Economy

30 Jan 2026

In 2025, China's economy achieved 5.0% GDP growth, driven primarily by consumption, despite challenges in investment and the real estate sector. Looking ahead to 2026, steady growth is anticipated with a focus on structural optimization, as policy support aims to enhance consumption and investment in high-tech sectors, while exports remain resilient.

2026年收费公路行业信用展望—逆周期调节属性弱化,成熟期特征凸显

30 Jan 2026

2026年,收费公路行业面临新增投资持续回落,逆周期调节属性减弱。公路客货运量保持增长,行业收入稳定,但增速放缓。不同省份投资规模和债务压力差异明显,整体信用资质良好但存在个体差异。预计2026年行业整体稳定,盈利能力短期小幅提升,但长期承压。

Read Behind China's Household Income Dynamics

26 Jan 2026

China's per capita household disposable income grew by 5% in 2025, with a notable shift in income structure—wage income remains dominant while net transfer income increases. Despite rising household income relative to GDP, there is significant room for improvement in income distribution compared to developed economies.

China’s Public Finance Credit Outlook for 2026

05 Jan 2026

China's economy is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2026, despite ongoing downward pressures in traditional infrastructure. The government's leverage ratio is expected to exceed 75%, with a focus on enhancing consumer welfare and strategic investments, while risks related to LGFVs are anticipated to decrease due to stringent debt management policies and supportive liquidity.

量体裁衣方为智:国际三大评级机构主权评级方法的中国适用性偏误

10 Apr 2025

国际三大评级机构的主权评级方法应用于中国时存在局限。其一体验在对中国经济转型期的基本面判断不全面;二是对中国政策制度的评估不深入,以西方经验审视中国,带有意识形态偏见;三是对中国应对内外部风险的政策与经济协同缺乏客观认知。

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